Let's hear it for Westsista's take on today's New Hampshire primary!
It is estimated that the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries get about as much media coverage as the rest of the primaries combined. People like me pray for a long, drawn-out battle where the other party’s nominees slash each other to ribbons for months. But what usually happens is that after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida (which will be January 31st), the nomination usually seems pretty well decided.
What’s all the fuss about the New Hampshire primary? After all, they only have 12 delegates, out of a total of 2,286 Republican delegates. That’s way less than 1%.
Although New Hampshire is notorious for delivering surprise election results (as opposed to polls), Romney seems to be so far ahead that none of the other candidates have a chance to beat him.
Controlling for other factors statistically, a win in New Hampshire increases a candidate's share of the final primary count in all states by 27 percentage points. (Click here for a link that proves my point.)
Good news for Mitt Romney, the frontrunner. But the real fight is over second place in New Hampshire, which is worth about 17 percentage points in the final primary tally. 17% is a huge number if the ABR (Anyone But Romney) Republicans can agree on a candidate.
Although Rick Perry proved that he CAN indeed remember three things in the last debate, I don’t think he has much of a chance in New Hampshire (in fact, I think lots of people may believe he already dropped out when he said he was returning to Texas to think about the election. Don’t bother thinking too hard, Rick Perry.) Rick Santorum will probably not do very well either, although he may still have a shot in the South Carolina primary.
- Will it be Jon Huntsman, who has gone all in for this primary fight? Lesser-known candidates who do well in New Hampshire can suddenly become serious contenders.
- Will it be Ron Paul, who routinely gets the least media attention proportionately for the highest amount of support?
- Or will it be Newt Gingrich, who has completely given up running a positive campaign in favor of the nasty attack ads that history has shown to be vastly most effective?
Second place here doesn’t mean second rate -- it is enormously more important than first place in most other states.
I had no idea that a win in New Hampshire increased a candidate's chance of winning the final primary count by 27%. Or the 17% factor. How in the world did you come across these facts, Westsista? Fascinating.
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 05:26 AM
I want Jon Huntsman to either win or take second place. I want it really bad. Romney bores me.
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 05:27 AM
Westsista -- any opinions on how Todd Palin's (husband) endorsement of Gingrich will shake up the primary results tonight?
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 05:40 AM
I think the entire Republican pack bores everyone, Flann. Hence the 25% ceiling thus far.
The only interesting thing about the Republican pack is how the Republican electorate will seemingly become enamored with their final candidate when he runs against Obama. The national election won't be so much about electing a Republican as it will be about un-electing Obama, as far as Republicans are concerned.
The key for the national election will be the fight for the independent vote. Always true, never more so than in this coming election.
Now, if some Republican is foolish enough to run as an independent in the national election, that's a horse of a different color...
Posted by: treesta | January 10, 2012 at 05:41 AM
Todd Palin thinks he's important enough to publically endorse ANYBODY?
Posted by: treesta | January 10, 2012 at 05:44 AM
I have no idea what this means, but in high school I wanted to graduate second in my class -- not first, but second -- so I could give a speech that basically told everyone that the world was going to hell in a hand basket. I figured the valedictorian in her/his speech would make everyone feel better with a speech about embracing your dreams, etc. so the whole ceremony wouldn't be in the crapper.
Alas, I was fourth in my class. A dream shattered.
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 05:44 AM
Don't you think Donald Trump is foolish enough to run as an independent? I think your comment about the national election being more about un-electing Obama than electing a Republican is very astute.
And you're right -- all the Republicans bore me, Huntsman bores me the least. Gotta confess that Obama bores me these days, too.
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 05:48 AM
I think Ron Paul would also consider running as an independent. And I think there's not much of a difference between Romney and Obama.
What would your speech look like now, Flann?
Posted by: treesta | January 10, 2012 at 06:01 AM
I would hope I would be more humble, treesta.
Come to think of it, the salutatorian speech I would give today would be much different from the one I would have given a year ago. That's how life-changing the past 18 months have been for me.
I don't think it's possible for politicians to be humble, by the way. I'm trying to think of one humble politician and can't. Can you, Westsista?
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 06:06 AM
Harry Truman.
In today's world - maybe Olympia Snowe.
Posted by: treesta | January 10, 2012 at 06:16 AM
Harry Truman? Sorry, any politician/President who decides to drop a second atomic bomb after dropping the first one wins no humbleness award in my book.
Olympic Snowe is a good suggestion. To even wonder about a politician's humility probably says a lot about my lack of humility.
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 06:58 AM
Gabrielle Giffords is humble and hoping to be rehabilitated well-enough to serve her constituency for another term. Mostly, she is just glad to be alive. Sometimes politicians come to humble the hard way ... just like the rest of us.
Posted by: PEACEsista | January 10, 2012 at 09:44 AM
Gabby Giffords is an excellent example of a humble public servant, PEACEsista.
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 09:54 AM
If the Dixville Notch is any indication, it will be Romney winning with Huntsman placing second. It seems that only the Democrats were in agrement. The 3 Dems voted for Obama.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/10/dixville-notch-primary-results_n_1195592.html?ref=politics
I think Huntsman might take second place. It would sure make it more interesting to have a serious contenter go against Romney. Santorum might do well in South Carolina, but I don't think well enough to keep him in the race.
Posted by: Matissta | January 10, 2012 at 10:56 AM
No one cares who Todd Palin endorses.
A group called Americans Elect 2012 (americanselect.org) plans to use an internet-based nominating process to field a ticket for the 2012 U.S. presidential election. They are on the ballot in 15 states and hope to get on the rest. They have some interesting ideas.
Ron Paul won't go 3rd party because of the Republican party damage that would spill over onto his son.
Sherrod Brown (Senator from Ohio) seems humble to me but I might be blinded by lust.
Posted by: Westsista | January 10, 2012 at 12:07 PM
Bottom line, Westsista -- do you think Romney will be the Republican Presidential nominee?
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 01:00 PM
Absolutely. Romney will be the Republican nominee. This is the weakest field of candidates in decades. They make him look presidential.
Posted by: Westsista | January 10, 2012 at 01:11 PM
treesta, I'm really troubled that you don't perceive any difference in an Obama vs a Romney presidency. You are my 2nd friend to say that in recent days.
I think I smell a new article brewing.
Posted by: Westsista | January 10, 2012 at 01:12 PM
Flann and Treesta: I am in Vermont trying to understand poets. I almost sent a message this morning re: Obama vs. Romney. I am mad at my President but will work my ass off for him. Romney doesn't have a hint of a principle anywhere. I believe that Obama meant what he said when he was campaigning but was not a skilled as he thought he was in getting things done. Big difference for me.
Back to poets
Posted by: Justista | January 10, 2012 at 01:52 PM
Thanks Justista. Agreed. Good luck with the poets.
Posted by: Westsista | January 10, 2012 at 01:59 PM
Thanks for sassing in, Justista. If you are going to work your ass off for Obama, then I guess I can at least muster some enthusiasm for him.
By the way, who are the poets you are trying to understand? Matissta's and my new friends, The Poet and His Wife, at now at their other home in Cornwall, VT, just south of where you are, I think.
Jimmy Carter has published a book of poetry (not very good, I'm afraid). That is my pathetic attempt to tie in poetry with politics.
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 02:03 PM
Just is going to Bennington College, I believe. That's right over the Mass border.
I think you're thinking of Burlington, which is where the University of Vermont is located. Much further up. Cornwall is south of Burlington.
Posted by: Matissta | January 10, 2012 at 02:26 PM
Oh.
I'm terrible at geography.
Also politics.
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 02:38 PM
Stephen Colbert is beating Jon Huntsman in the South Carolina primary. That's gotta sting.
Posted by: Westsista | January 10, 2012 at 03:52 PM
What's Colbert's campaign slogan? That can make all the difference.
Romney's is so insipid: BELIEVE IN AMERICA
Posted by: Flannista | January 10, 2012 at 04:19 PM